Tag Archives: Demographic Winter

Western Europe is no more

by DAVID BROWN | CLEARNFO.com | April 2, 2017

Western Europe is no more. The seeds of multiculturalism have been sown, and in 10 years, the EU will be unrecognizable. In 20 years, the EU will undergo a fundamental transformation into a Muslim-majority territory.

There are about 510 million people in the 28 member states of the EU, but with 1/3 of EU pregnancies ending in abortion, the economic prosperity is simply unsustainable due to demographics alone. This high abortion rate shows up in the fertility rate of the EU as a whole which is roughly 1.47. A minimum fertility rate of 2.1 is required just to keep the population at zero growth. History and mathematics have shown when fertility rates plummet below 2.1, a population teeters on a demographic cliff with a rapid decline soon to follow. This is called a demographic winter or a collapse of the population. Simply put, there are not enough young productive people entering the workforce to support the society. While the approach to the cliff is deceptively slow, the fall is rapid, unpreventable and recovery is long and uncertain.

So as the traditional Western Europeans kill their children for convenience and a false perception there will be more prosperity for them, they have unwittingly sealed their fate. The new influx of refugees from MENA (Middle East & North Africa) have no such problem. Their fertility rate well exceeds the 2.1 rate (3 – 6 or higher); so within a few generations –if these rates continue– these new European citizens will become the majority, and their culture and religion will dominate Western Europe. Hasta la vista.

Additional reading from ClearNFO:

Demographics 101:

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by DAVID BROWN | CLEARNFO.com | Jan 13, 2016

Demographic Winter?

Demographics are an incredibly important factor in Geopolitics and Economics, yet most people have little understanding of how this works and so their ignorance of this topic is used against them, to deceive them into believing things that are just not true. I will not take the time now to give a detailed explanation but will provide basic information on which we can all agree. First concept is that depending on local customs, religions, etc. most girls/women do not start having children until they are 13 to 20. Also depending on local customs and religions girls/women may have more than one child during a span of one to two or maybe three decades. In the West and the more developed countries child birth starts at an older age and we have less children per woman. So what does this mean? It means that most developed countries cannot produce enough children to keep the population steady and stable … in fact many countries are teetering on a demographic cliff. We can’t see this cliff because it takes a couple of decades to become apparent. What happens during these decades? Well, you have less children and the same number of deaths. This means that the population decreases as we can see all over the Western world. This is bad. Really bad. Why? Because as people age, they become less productive and more expensive to maintain AND you have a smaller number of younger people available to support this.

Another hidden trend is that population growth happens very slowly, but the demographic nightmare happens very quickly and the recovery from falling off this cliff is very slow, some 20 years away if it happens at all.

It is estimated that you need a fertility rate of 2.1 just to keep the population growth at zero. If a country has less than 2.1 children per woman, then they are shrinking and may face the demographic cliff if they don’t increase child birth or import immigrants. 132 countries have a fertility rate less than 2.1. This includes the US @ 1.87; Canada @ 1.59; China @ 1.60; Russia @ 1.61; Japan @ 1.4 and all of Western Europe.

So whilst the propagandists and fear merchants are warning you about the unsustainable population explosion in countries like Niger @ 6.7, what they are not telling you is that the real danger to you, your family, your economy and your country is the massive population decrease that is 10 to 20 years out.

More reading and videos on this topic at ClearNFO:

Demographic Winter and Population Growth

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Demographic Winter and Population Growth

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by DAVID BROWN | CLEARNFO.com | October 24, 2014

It is important to understand two concepts when thinking about the world population. The fear mongers would have you believe that the growth rate is linear or exponential in an unstoppable upward trend until the masses of humanity consume all the world’s resources. This is just wrong-headed when you don’t consider fertility rates and the necessary lag time for women to reach child bearing age. The facts are that while population in total may be increasing at the present, the rate of growth is decreasing in most countries (see URL link below).

Just to keep a population at a zero growth rate you must constantly replace the people who are dying from old age, illness, accidents, wars, etc. This replacement rate is generally considered to be 2.1 for developed countries and 2.3 for underdeveloped countries.

So in developed states we need a fertility rate of about 2.1 children per woman and in less developed states we need about 2.3 children per woman just to stay at zero growth.

Now, babies don’t just pop out immediately so you have to wait until the woman is of child bearing age plus nine months. This is a lag of say 20 years. Additionally, if fertility rates are below the replacement rates of 2.1 or 2.3, the shrinkage of the population will not be noticed for many years but when it is noticed the drop is dramatic, sudden and can feed on itself for generations. The unintended consequences of low fertility rates: 1) not enough young people to support the elderly; 2) aging work force; 3) necessity to import more fertile immigrants; and 4) resultant changes to the culture and standard of living.

The current fertility rate for the USA and Australia is 1.9 and for the UK and France is 2.0; China is 1.7 and Canada is 1.6; all below the necessary 2.1 to maintain zero growth.

The average total fertility rate in the European Union (EU-27) has been calculated at 1.59.

Most fertility rates are down world-wide
Source of data: The World Bank Fertility rate, total (births per woman)
Demographic Winter