Glenn Diesen interviews Alex Krainer on the Economic Collapse & the End of Europe

Alex Krainer: Economic Collapse & the End of Europe

Alex (Sasha) Krainer: Founder at Krainer Analytics. Monaco, Monaco. Author of #1 rated book on commodities, “Mastering Uncertainty in Commodities Trading,” and “Alex Krainer’s Trend Following Bible”; creator of I-System Trend Following – engineering, implementing and maintaining bespoke, high performance turn-key portfolio solutions (with audited track record); publisher of TrendCompass daily market reports; contributing editor at ZeroHedge.
https://x.com/NakedHedgie

Glenn Diesen is a professor of Russian international affairs, with focus on geoeconomics, conservatism and the Greater Eurasia Initiative. Professor at University of South-Eastern Norway
https://x.com/Glenn_Diesen

Eurasia, the “World Island”

Bonus: KunstlerCast 420 — Tom Luongo of Gold, Goats and Guns, Talkin’ Europe, Russia, and America in a Dangerous Year
https://www.kunstler.com/p/kunstlercast-420-tom-luongo-of-gold?utm_campaign=post&utm_medium=web

Tom Luongo is a Former Research Chemist, Amateur Dairy Goat Farmer, Anarcho-Libertarian and Obstreperous Austrian Economist who blogs and podcasts at Gold, Goats and, Guns. His work can also be found on sites like Zerohedge, Lewrockwell.com, Bitcoin Magazine and Newsmax Media. His work focuses on the attempt to connect the false narratives of geopolitics to viable long-term investment theses. He built the house that he lives in and loves hockey, his family, the art of drumming, board games of all kinds, a logically consistent argument, and the beauty of spontaneous order…. not necessarily in that order.

Grok Summary of Alex Krainer: Economic Collapse & the End of Europe

Here’s a summary of the transcript titled “Alex Krainer: Economic Collapse & the End of Europe,” a conversation between host Glenn and guest Alex Krainer, a market analyst, author, and former hedge fund manager, recorded on March 10, 2025 (based on the current date provided). The discussion explores the decline of the Western political and economic order, the role of financial systems in global conflicts, and the future of Europe, NATO, and U.S. policy under Trump.

Summary:

1. Introduction and Context:
   • Glenn introduces Alex Krainer, expressing excitement about discussing the rapidly changing world, where geoeconomics increasingly overshadows geopolitics in great power rivalries. Alex, referencing his 2021 book Europe as the Western Peninsula of Greater Eurasia, argues that the post-WWII unity of the political West was a fragile construct, ill-suited for a multipolar world, and is now fragmenting.
2. Unraveling of the Post-WWII Order:
   • Alex explains that the post-WWII system, once heralded as a permanent “unipolar moment,” is collapsing due to internal contradictions. After WWII, the Soviet Union, U.S., and Western allies prevailed, but Churchill’s 1946 Fulton speech marked the Soviet Union as an enemy, splitting the alliance and birthing the Cold War and NATO. Despite the Soviet collapse in 1991, NATO expanded toward Russia, escalating into a proxy war in Ukraine, which Alex sees as risking further global conflict.
3. Financial System as a Driver of Aggression:
   • Alex attributes Western militarism to a debt-based financial system, centered in London with satellites like Wall Street. Money enters circulation as loans requiring collateral, creating a Ponzi-like structure that demands constant growth. When domestic collateral runs dry, the West seeks it abroad through colonization and resource extraction (e.g., oil from Saudi Arabia), benefiting banking elites while fueling wars. He notes the U.S. initiated over 80% of post-WWII conflicts despite public opposition, driven by this need for “collateral.”
4. Historical Roots and the British Empire:
   • This system, Alex argues, dates back centuries—from Greece to Rome, Venice, Amsterdam, and London—culminating in a still-active British Empire reliant on U.S. power. He invokes Halford Mackinder’s Heartland Theory, which posits that controlling Eastern Europe and the Eurasian “Heartland” ensures global dominance. Past attempts (e.g., pre-WWI Germany, now Ukraine) to thwart Russia’s rise have failed, pushing Russia toward China, a shift the West hasn’t adapted to.
5. U.S. Policy Shift Under Trump:
   • Alex highlights a Trump administration pivot, exemplified by Marco Rubio’s claim that the post-WWII order is obsolete and weaponized against the U.S. Maintaining the empire (e.g., 800-900 military bases) has cost the U.S. dearly—$36.5 trillion in debt—while benefiting European and British elites. With Ukraine’s resources dwindling and Russia offering $75-90 trillion in joint development, Trump may abandon Europe for a pragmatic Russia alliance, reducing costs and avoiding nuclear risks.
6. NATO’s Decline:
   • Alex predicts NATO’s collapse, a view gaining traction (e.g., Elon Musk’s recent X posts). He argues NATO’s aggressive role in Ukraine (since 1991), Libya, and Yugoslavia undermines its defensive image. Many members (e.g., Hungary, Slovakia, Croatia) might refuse Article 5 obligations against Russia, and Trump’s demand for 5% GDP contributions—unfeasible for nations like Germany—sets the stage for U.S. withdrawal, rendering NATO purposeless.
7. Europe’s Dire Future:
   • Without U.S. support, Europe faces militarization and “Nazification,” a process Alex compares to 1930s Germany and post-2014 Ukraine. Economic decline (e.g., Ukraine’s 35% GDP drop from 1991-2014), youth unemployment, and rising neo-Nazi groups signal this trend. European elites may double down, risking war with Russia or a diminished global role unless radical leadership changes occur (e.g., Germany’s AfD exiting NATO/EU).
8. Trump’s Economic Strategy:
   • Alex sees Trump’s plans—tariffs, potential annexation of Canada/Greenland, and Russia partnerships—as attempts to bolster U.S. wealth and offset its debt crisis. However, he doubts their efficacy without addressing the $36.5 trillion debt overhang, warning of inflation risks from tariffs alone. A shift from the “doomed” dollar to new currencies is likely under discussion, though covertly, promising surprises.
9. Conclusion:
   • The West is in uncharted territory, with the U.S. likely to abandon Europe and NATO crumbling. Alex urges vigilance against Europe’s militaristic slide and directs listeners to his X (@naked_hedgy) and Substack platforms (I-System Trend Following and Alex Krainer Substack) for more.

Grok Summary of the podcast: KunstlerCast 420 — Tom Luongo of Gold, Goats and Guns, Talkin’ Europe, Russia, and America in a Dangerous Year: Conversation with Tom Luongo” from the KunstlerCast, featuring host James Howard Kunstler and guest Tom Luongo, a former research chemist turned anarcho-libertarian economist who runs Gold, Goats, and Guns. Recorded on March 10, 2025 (based on the provided date), the discussion explores the complex U.S.-UK relationship, the decline of European power, and shifting global alliances, with a focus on financial systems, geopolitics, and Trump’s administration.